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Climate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We developed a spectral analysis–based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 101to 105years. We report dynamic similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (149−1to 18,012−1year−1, that is, one cycle per 149 to 18,012 years). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (797−1year−1) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (4650−1year−1) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, whereas vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >149−1year−1may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available July 3, 2026
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Horikawa, Keiji; Iwai, Masao; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Siddoway, Christine S; Halberstadt, Anna Ruth; Cowan, Ellen A; Penkrot, Michelle L; Gohl, Karsten; Wellner, Julia S; Asahara, Yoshihiro; et al (, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), crucial for predicting future sea-level rise, is threatened by ocean-forced melting in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. While some geological records and ice-sheet models suggest WAIS retreat during past warm periods, reliable data constraining the extent of retreat are lacking. Detrital Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope data of sediments recently drilled at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1532 on the Amundsen Sea continental rise manifest repeated alternations in sediment provenance during glacial–interglacial cycles of the Pliocene (5.33 to 2.58 Mya), a time warmer than present. The variations reflect large fluctuations in WAIS extent on the Antarctic continent. A unique high Pb/low εNdsignature of sediments found at the onset of glacial intervals (3.88, 3.6, and 3.33 Ma) is attributed to the supply of detritus sourced from plutonic rocks located in the West Antarctic interior. Its isotopic signature at Site U1532 indicates major inland retreat of the WAIS during the preceding interglacials. During peak interglacials, the ice margin had retreated inland, and icebergs rafted and deposited inland-sourced detritus over 500 km across the Amundsen Sea shelf. Subsequent readvance of grounded ice then “bulldozed” these inland-derived fine-grained sediments from the shelf down to the continental slope and rise, resulting in a high Pb/low εNdpeak in the rise sediments. Our continuous Pliocene records provide conclusive evidence for at least five major inland retreat events of the WAIS, highlighting the significant vulnerability of the WAIS to ongoing warming.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 22, 2026
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